South Florida Region

24-48 h outlook · generated 2026-10-09T16:01:48.350Z · LIVE NWS/NHC

Download the PDF (24-48h situational report)

Executive summary

Hazardous marine conditions will develop today across the Gulf waters as southeast winds increase and swell from Hurricane Isaias builds. - Minor coastal flooding will be possible across the coastal areas during each high tide cycle today and into the first part of the weekend due to King Tides associated with the upcoming new moon. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day heading into the upcoming weekend. The highest chances will remain across the interior as well as the Lake Okeechobee region each afternoon and evening.

Tropical: Isaias (HU) in the Atlantic — no Florida threat indicated.

Full forecaster discussion at the end of the tropical section.

County severity map

Broward - LOWMiami-Dade - LOWMonroe - HIGHMonroe - HIGHMonroe - HIGHMonroe - HIGHMonroe - HIGHMonroe - HIGHMonroe - HIGHMonroe - HIGHMonroe - HIGHMonroe - HIGHDeSoto - noneHardee - noneHighlands - noneOkeechobee - nonePolk - noneIndian River - MODERATEMartin - MODERATEPalm Beach - MODERATESt. Lucie - MODERATECharlotte - MODERATECollier - MODERATEGlades - noneHendry - noneLee - HIGHLee - HIGHSarasota - MODERATE

Fill = each county highest active NWS alert severity; pale grey = no active alerts.

Severity scale

EXTREME HIGH MODERATE LOW

In plain terms

Broward County Chapter

Counties: Broward

Active impacts: SURGE. MFL: Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 A strengthening mid level ridge centered in the western Atlantic will continue to gradually build towards South Florida today through Saturday. At the same time, Hurricane Isaias will continue to push northward throughout the day, eventually making landfall sometime late tonight into early Saturday along the northern Gulf Coast. As Hurricane Isaias moves northward today, this will help to drag the frontal boundary that has been stalled out over Central Florida during the past couple of days northward, and away from the region.

Affected: Broward

Greater Miami and the Keys Chapter

Counties: Miami-Dade, Monroe

Active impacts: SURGE, TC, RAIN. MFL: Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 A strengthening mid level ridge centered in the western Atlantic will continue to gradually build towards South Florida today through Saturday. At the same time, Hurricane Isaias will continue to push northward throughout the day, eventually making landfall sometime late tonight into early Saturday along the northern Gulf Coast. As Hurricane Isaias moves northward today, this will help to drag the frontal boundary that has been stalled out over Central Florida during the past couple of days northward, and away from the region.

Affected: Miami-Dade, Monroe

Mid-Florida Chapter

Counties: DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee, Polk

No active alerts in this chapter. TBW: - Coastal flooding of 2 to 4 ft possible for Levy County with 1 to 3 ft possible southward to Hillsborough County Friday into Saturday. - A Marginal risk for excessive rainfall with the threat for localized flooding on Saturday. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions with seas up to 6 to 10 ft and dangerous rip currents today and Saturday. && MLB: Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 - Scattered to numerous (50-70%) showers and storms are forecast each day through the weekend, with coverage peaking in the afternoon and early evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing gusty winds of 40-50 mph and occasional lightning. Locations that see repeated storms may experience localized flooding. - A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all Central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Stay out of the rough surf!

Palm Beach and Treasure Coast Chapter

Counties: Indian River, Martin, Palm Beach, St. Lucie

Active impacts: SURF, SURGE. MLB: Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 - Scattered to numerous (50-70%) showers and storms are forecast each day through the weekend, with coverage peaking in the afternoon and early evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing gusty winds of 40-50 mph and occasional lightning. Locations that see repeated storms may experience localized flooding. - A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at all Central Florida Atlantic beaches today. Stay out of the rough surf! MFL: Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 A strengthening mid level ridge centered in the western Atlantic will continue to gradually build towards South Florida today through Saturday. At the same time, Hurricane Isaias will continue to push northward throughout the day, eventually making landfall sometime late tonight into early Saturday along the northern Gulf Coast. As Hurricane Isaias moves northward today, this will help to drag the frontal boundary that has been stalled out over Central Florida during the past couple of days northward, and away from the region.

Affected: Indian River, Martin, Palm Beach, St. Lucie

Southwest Florida Chapter

Counties: Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry, Lee, Sarasota

Active impacts: SURF, SURGE, TC, RAIN. TBW: - Coastal flooding of 2 to 4 ft possible for Levy County with 1 to 3 ft possible southward to Hillsborough County Friday into Saturday. - A Marginal risk for excessive rainfall with the threat for localized flooding on Saturday. - Hazardous marine and beach conditions with seas up to 6 to 10 ft and dangerous rip currents today and Saturday. && MFL: Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 A strengthening mid level ridge centered in the western Atlantic will continue to gradually build towards South Florida today through Saturday. At the same time, Hurricane Isaias will continue to push northward throughout the day, eventually making landfall sometime late tonight into early Saturday along the northern Gulf Coast. As Hurricane Isaias moves northward today, this will help to drag the frontal boundary that has been stalled out over Central Florida during the past couple of days northward, and away from the region.

Affected: Charlotte, Collier, Lee, Sarasota

Impacts tracked

County x impact matrix

TCTSTMRAINWINDTORHAILSURGESURFHEATFIREFOG
1. Broward······LOW····
2. Miami-Dade······LOW····
3. MonroeMODERATE·HIGH···LOW····
4. DeSoto···········
5. Hardee···········
6. Highlands···········
7. Okeechobee···········
8. Polk···········
9. Indian River·······MODERATE···
10. Martin·······MODERATE···
11. Palm Beach······LOWMODERATE···
12. St. Lucie·······MODERATE···
13. Charlotte·······MODERATE···
14. Collier······LOWMODERATE···
15. Glades···········
16. Hendry···········
17. LeeMODERATE·HIGH····MODERATE···
18. Sarasota·······MODERATE···

Tropical

NHC Atlantic outlook (issued Fri, 7:03 AM EDT): For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located over the north-central Gulf of America. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Full discussion - NWS

A strengthening mid level ridge centered in the western Atlantic will continue to gradually build towards South Florida today through Saturday. At the same time, Hurricane Isaias will continue to push northward throughout the day, eventually making landfall sometime late tonight into early Saturday along the northern Gulf Coast. As Hurricane Isaias moves northward today, this will help to drag the frontal boundary that has been stalled out over Central Florida during the past couple of days northward, and away from the region. The pressure gradient across the region will tighten today, which will create a breezy and gusty southeasterly wind flow across South Florida as the day progresses. While the influence of the frontal boundary rapidly decreases across the region today, additional moisture will be pulled up from the south which will help to gradually erode a pocket of drier air that moved into the region during early morning hours. This additional moisture advection that will occur today will help to increase the PWATs as they will range between 2.0 and 2.2 inches across most areas this afternoon. With ridging building in aloft, convective activity will be sea breeze driven and more scattered in nature than it has been over the past several days. With a breezy and gusty southeasterly synoptic wind flow, the highest chances of convection will remain over the interior and Lake Okeechobee region during the afternoon and evening, however, some isolated activity cannot be ruled out over the east coast metro areas, especially earlier in the afternoon. High temperatures today will generally range from around 90 along the east coast to the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. Moving into tonight and Saturday, mid level ridging will continue to build into the region from the western Atlantic during this time frame, while Isaias gradually moves across the Deep South as Saturday progresses. With South Florida still remaining on the western periphery of the mid level ridge, this will create a deep southerly wind flow over the area across the mid to upper levels, while a breezy and gusty southeasterly flow remains in place at the surface. This will help to keep advecting deep tropical moisture over the region throughout Saturday. While this moisture will help to increase chances of showers and thunderstorm area wide during this time frame, the steering flow and gusty winds at the surface will provide for rather fast storm motion. This general flow from south to north will also focus the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms back up along and north of Alligator Alley as the afternoon progresses. While strong thunderstorm chances will remain rather limited, they cannot be entirely ruled out especially across the Lake Okeechobee region. The strongest storms in the afternoon across those areas could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours. High temperatures on Saturday will range from around 90 across the east coast to the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

County detail

Sources